【LMAX】每日外汇市场评论 22.09.2016

发布于:2016-09-22发布者:万海投资

·EUR: The lack of movement from the FOMC translated into another quiet Asian session with the market listening intently to further chatter on the subject of Fed movements for the future with general consensus still remaining that at least one rise is due for the USD base rate before the end of the year, that’s a bit less than the various 3 or 4 rises expected at the beginning of the year and given comments about Brexit and world economy would suggest it remains watch and wait, Euros tested the 1.1200 levels into the early part of the session however, for the most part holding around the 1.1190 levels before finally lightly pushing through as the market moved into the pre-London period. Topside offers likely to be more congestive than strong however, once the market moves through the 1.1220 areas those congestive offers are likely to become a little stronger and through into the 1.1240-60 areas limiting the topside for the moment, however, saying that the markets inability to move yesterday would suggest that there is a general reluctance to trade within the current ranges in any meaningful manner, a push through those levels will likely see stronger offers still remaining into the 1.1300 and possibly on a meagre chance of any solid movement once the market is testing through to the 1.1360 areas and levels not seen since June. Downside bids light through to the 1.1150 areas where the market starts to see some bids appearing on any dips below the level and then those bids likely to continue through to 1.1100 areas, with the market still mired in the past 3 months ranges and needing a push through the 1.1050 area to open up fresh tests to the lows.


·欧元:FOMC后走淡,亚洲时段市场讨论美联储往后行动,一致认为美联储在年底前还将至少加息一次,少于年初预期的加息3-4次,且鉴于英国退欧和世界经济,预期其将保持观望态度。欧元测试1.1200后大部分时间持稳1.1190,伦敦盘前稍微突破。上行方向挂单密集,上破1.1220区间可触发更强卖单并测试1.1240-60区间,但市场昨日未能上破表明当前区间存在犹豫情绪,上破可触发1.1300强劲卖单,强劲上破可上探6月以来高位1.1360。下行方向至1.1150区间有少量买单,下破可触发买单并下探1.1100区间,市场仍受困三个月来幅度,下破1.1050区间可下探新低。


·GBP: The lack of reaction yesterday seems to have continued through to today with the Cable rising only steadily through from the 1.3040 areas to test towards the 1.3060 level into the London session, part of this could be the news that tax receipts are far below expectations for the year so far and likely to miss targets however, given the expectations yesterday for a rate cut one would have expected the market to move back to its previous levels, Topside offers are likely to be a little thin through to the 1.3200 and possible stronger offers although the market has pushed above this level during the month it’s likely to still cause some limited resistance to the market, downside bids through the 1.3000 levels likely to increase into the 1.2950 level with only small stops likely on a break and the market is likely to remain supported through to the 1.2900 areas.


·英镑:今日继续走淡,英镑从1.3040区间稳步测试1.3060,部分原因在于本年税收远少于预期,可能难以达成目标,鉴于昨日降息展望,预期市场将回到早前水平。上行方向至1.3200有少量卖单,上破可触发更强卖单,预期本月上行方向仍有有限阻力。下行方向1.3000至1.2950买单增加,下破可触发少量止损,1.2900区间区间为支撑区。


·JPY: USDJPY dipped from the move into the Tokyo session having opened around the 100.40 areas however the dip was limited through the 100.20 areas and the bids won the day as the market pushed back to the opening levels, Topside offers limited through to the 101.00 levels with possible weak stops on a push through the level and the market struggling through the 101.60 areas with possible offers limited only by commentary expectations by the BoJ/MoF. Downside bids likely to increase on any dip to the 100 levels and through the level into the 99.50 areas, those bids are likely to increase the deeper the market goes as expectations increase for the BoJ/MoF to speak those illustrious words “watching FX market closely”


·日元:美日东京盘前开包100.40区间后下探100.20区间,触发买盘支持回到开盘价。上行方向至101.00卖单有限,上破可触发弱止损并看向101.60区间,受日央行/财务省评论预期影响,预计上行方向阻力有限。下行方向至100买单增加,下破可下探99.50区间,下方买单可能增加,市场预期日央行/财务省将使用“密切观望汇市”等描述性词汇。


·AUD: A very quiet session for the Oz with the market testing to the 0.7650 levels through the session several times however, with a lack of impetus the market seems to be relying on cross trading for movement at the moment, Topside offers likely to continue through the 0.7660 areas and then a little weakness on a move towards the 77 cent level with sentimental offers likely to dominate the area and natural sellers sitting and waiting. Downside bids light through the 76 cent levels and the market is not likely to improve until the 0.7540-30 areas are tested with possible new bids moving in as the market talks of better conditions and less comments from the RBA on the subject.


·澳元:澳元非常淡静,多次测试0.7650,缺乏动力,主要受交叉盘影响。上行方向至0.7660区间有卖单,上破0.77可上探心理关键位,上方有自然卖单。下行方向至0.76有少量买单,0.7540-30有新一轮买单,主要受市场讨论和澳联储评论较少影响。


英文网址链接:https://www.lmax.com/blog/fx-market-commentary/2016/09/22/daily-fx-market-commentary-766/


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