【LMAX】每日外汇市场评论 27.09.2016

发布于:2016-09-27发布者:万海投资


·EUR: Euro’s traded a little lower from the opening around the 1.1255 levels before moving into the Tokyo session and strong buying in USDJPY forced the Euro to the 1.1240 levels and from there the market traded around the 1.1245 with the first round of debating between Clinton/Trump the market failed to draw much of a conclusion from who won. Euro offers through to the 1.1260 levels then some weakness on a move towards the 1.1280-1.1300 level, and then with congestive offers to the topside the market looks limited at best for the day however, saying that the volumes so far have been reasonable and could continue. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 areas with the possibility of weak stops on a drop through the 1.1180 areas will likely be quickly absorbed by bids into the mid-levels on the handle and strength appearing from the 1.1160-40 levels.


·欧元:欧元开报1.1255,东京盘前受美日影响下探1.1240,在特朗普/希拉里首轮辩论期间震荡1.1245,投资者未能判断谁胜出。上行方向1.1250有卖单,上破可上探1.1280-1.1300,上方卖单密集,全日交投淡静。下行方向至1.1200区间有少量买单,下破1.1180区间可触发弱止损并迅速吸收中位买盘,1.1160-40有新一轮强劲买单。


·GBP: Early selling in the Euro saw the Cable forced off its early lows around the 1.2950 levels into Tokyo and trading back through the opening level to trigger weak stops on a move through to the 1.2990 areas before drifting eventually back to the 1.2970 levels and into the London session. Topside bids light into the 1.3000 areas with the possibility of a few weak stops on the move through the level, the light offers are likely to continue on a move higher with concentrations around the 1.3050 area and then slightly stronger on a move to the 1.3100 levels with the possibility of a squeeze through the level if the momentum is good. Downside bids on any dip through the 1.2950 levels and through to the 1.2900 area, with the talk of Hard or Soft Brexit continuing to play in the media, for my mind it was a simple in or out vote and those that voted out won, any half measures will likely split the country and as much as the current electorate don’t trust politicians this would definitely be a death knell for some careers, so Hard would be the only way forward.


·英镑:早段欧元触发卖盘,英镑测试1.2950早段低位,回到开盘价后触发弱止损兵测试1.2990区间,随后回到1.2970。上行方向至1.3000区间有少量买单,上破可触发弱止损,1.3050区间有少量卖单,上方至1.3100买单走强,如上破并受强劲势头支持将可触发逼仓。下行方向1.2950-1.2900区间有买单,媒体继续讨论硬性和软性英国退欧,笔者认为公投结果显示过半数人支持退欧,目前讨论令市场对政治人物失去信心,所以未来注定受到硬性影响。


·JPY: Moving off the 100.35 levels the USDJPY moved into the Tokyo session dropping quickly to the 100.10 areas as details of the BoJ July meeting were released and the market quickly moved higher again from the lows with a slightly weaker Service price, and the USDJPY started to rally higher pushing through to the 100.90 areas before running into limited limits to hold the market in the 100.70-80 areas to the London session, Topside offers into the 101.00-10 areas are likely to be weak with stops through the level likely and the market then able to move into the congested 101.50-102.00 areas with the offers likely to increase the higher the market moves, a push through to the 102.50 areas is likely to see stronger offers appearing and the topside becoming more vulnerable. Downside bids in strength into the 100.00 areas with stops likely to appear on a move through the 99.80 areas mostly from short term buyers however, the market below 99.50 is likely to see stronger bids again and the market slowing into those bids.


·日元:美日东京盘前从100.35回落100.10区间,日央行7月会议细节公布,市场迅速低位反弹,服务业价格逊于预期,美日开始走高,上探100.90区间后触发有限阻力持稳,伦敦盘前持稳100.70-80区间。上行方向至101.00-10有少量卖单,上破可触发弱止损,101.50-102.00区间卖单密集,上破102.50区间可触发更强卖单并继续向上。下行方向至100.00区间有强劲买单,下破99.80区间可触发短线买盘止损,99.50下方有强劲买单。


·AUD: Better industrial profits in China helped the Oz move higher through the session and AUDJPY was triggered higher with the USDJPY rise, early selling into the Tokyo session on a push through the 0.7630 level to test the 0.7615 areas, from there though it was one way traffic with cross buying and straight Oz buying showing through and the market moving to the 0.7665 levels before any real interference from the sellers. Topside offers from the highs are likely to continue through to the 77 cent level with limited congestion through to 0.7740 likely to be short term sellers, with the market likely to see stronger sellers. Downside bids limited through the 76 cent level however, there are likely to be bids on any move to the level with weak stops likely to dominate on a move through the level and into the 0.7560-40 congestion.


·澳元:中国工业利润利好,澳元受支持走高,澳日上探。东京盘前市场下破0.7630测试0.7615,随后交叉盘触发买盘,澳元上探0.7660后触发阻力。上行方向高位至0.77有卖单,直到0.7740挂单有限,预期以短线卖盘为主,上方卖单增强。下行方向至0.76有有限买单,下破可触发弱止损并看向0.7560-40密集挂单。


英文网址链接:https://www.lmax.com/blog/fx-market-commentary/2016/09/27/daily-fx-market-commentary-769/

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